THE RECORD
Every number, scored.
Each printed probability is checked against what actually happened, on weeks the fit never saw. Misses stay on the page. This is the whole record — the same numbers the desk shows a paying member, and the same ones on the front page.
Calibrated to
4.5 pts
Widest gap between what we said and what happened, in any band of 100+ calls.
Beats a coin flip
24/24
Season-by-market checks that clear a coin flip.
Stable
+1.9 to +2.8
Points better than that coin flip, worst season to best.
CALIBRATION
Does a stated chance happen that often?
All graded markets pooled into one curve, then each market on its own. A point on the diagonal means the number meant what it said.
Pooled, all markets
How to read this — the diagonal is perfect, and a bigger dot is more calls behind it.
Calls behind it
- Catches
- 27061
- Receiving yards
- 27061
- Rushing yards
- 8603
- Graded calls, all markets
- 62725
How to read this — one call is one player, one market, one week — every one of them settled before it counted here.
Catches
Widest gap: 3%
Receiving yards
Widest gap: 3%
Rushing yards
Widest gap: 4%
How to read this — one small curve per market, read the same way as the big one — the closer a market’s dots sit to the diagonal, the closer its printed numbers landed, and the widest gap under each is the worst that market got.
SEASON BY SEASON
Did it hold up every year?
Points better than a coin flip, one bar per season. A bad season stays a bad season here.
How to read this — longer is better, zero is a coin flip, and the note beside each bar is how many calls that season carried.
PAPER, IN PUBLIC
What has settled since we opened.
Paper only: Stat Lab takes no wagers and never places a bet on your behalf. This table is the live half of the record, and it starts small on purpose.
| Week | Settled | Came in |
|---|---|---|
| Preseason, week 1 | 9 | 6 |
How to read this — one row per week once it settles — no stake, no units, no running profit, because none of this is money.